TC 08S(DANILO): confidence in the forecast is increasing, 04/03utc update


WARNING 10: THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.


WARNING 10: THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT  IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH  THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC  TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
WARNING 10: THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
2021 JAN 04 0245UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 10
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 04, 2021:
Location: 14.1°S 76.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO VIEW THE MAPS AND READ THE REMARKS
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 76.1E.
04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
468 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 08S IS
UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S,
WHICH HAS WEAKENED AND IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF TC 08S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO DISCRETE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION: THE EASTERN,
LARGER AREA OF EXPANDING CONVECTION OBSCURING TC DANILO'S LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALLER, MORE LINEAR AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S. A 032351Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF TC 08S WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW/FMEE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5-T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) AND A 040115Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 3.9 (63 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). HOWEVER, THE
ABSORPTION OF INVEST 93S IS LIKELY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. IN
GENERAL, THERE IS NOW MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT
IN THE MODEL TRACKERS AND A NEAR-COMPLETE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION.
THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. NEAR TAU 24,
INVEST 93S WILL GET FULLY ABSORBED INTO TC 08S AND A STR WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MORE
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY
AFTER TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IMPROVED POLEWARD
VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS ANTICIPATED AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND
050300Z.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------
INVEST #93S
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 04, 2021:
Location: /
Maximum Winds: /
Gusts: /
DISSIPATING WITHIN TC 08S LARGER CIRCULATION
Minimum Central Pressure:

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

04/0245UTC. PH.
04/0245UTC. PH.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO  BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT CONTINUES TO  SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION.  THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE  MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.

GFS(HERE) AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
GFS(HERE) AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

04/0055UTC. DMSP
04/0055UTC. DMSP

04/0055UTC. DMSP
04/0055UTC. DMSP
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 4 Janvier 2021 à 07:30