TC 08S(CHENESO): long-awaited 2nd intensity peak occurring at last//Invest 98W//Invest 90B//Invest 94S// 2806utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(CHENESO). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED ON INVEST 90B.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC 08S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRANSIT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS FIRING ON THE WESTERN SIDE, WHILE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272231Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AMSR2 IMAGE AND CLOSE TO AGENCY POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HEDGED TOWARDS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATCON, ADT AND AIDT WHICH APPEAR TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND A STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN AND TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS IT PASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD BETWEEN THE DEEP RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL DECAY AS TC 08S INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE HIGH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN ADDITION TO COLDER WATERS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, COMPLETING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE DUE TO FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AND FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TRENDS. THEN AFTER TAU 24 THE FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BEST TRACK POINTS OUT THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION DID NOT MATERIALIZE. PH.