TC 07S(CHALANE) intensifying and slowly approaching Beira/Mozambique, 93S not doing much



07S IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL,ON THE LEFT END. INVEST 93S IS MEANDERING WEST OF COCOS, ON THE RIGHT END. IN-BETWEEN THERE IS A SUSPECT AREA(96S) NEAR THE CHAGOS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
07S IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE MOZ CHANNEL,ON THE LEFT END. INVEST 93S IS MEANDERING WEST OF COCOS, ON THE RIGHT END. IN-BETWEEN THERE IS A SUSPECT AREA(96S) NEAR THE CHAGOS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
TC #07S #CHALANE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 9
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 28, 2020:
Location: 20.0°S 41.6°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 41.2E.
28DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
154 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING EAST OF THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD BANDS EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CLOUD
BANDING IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
BASED ON AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (49 KTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS, WITH LOW (<10 KTS) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31-
32C) SSTS, BEING OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE AXIS OF A 200 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FAR
NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA TO SOUTHERN REGION OF MADAGASCAR. TC 07S
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MAIN STR
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING FACTOR AND TC 07S WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 90NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 55 KNOTS AS THE WEAK OUTFLOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL INHIBIT THE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER THE MID-
LEVELS MOISTEN, OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A
POOL OF HIGH OHC, ALLOWING FOR FASTER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT
TAU 36 AS IT MOVES THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE ONLY FACTOR
LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALOFT,
AND ANALYSIS OF UPPER-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS LENDS SUPPORT TO A HIGHER
INTENSITY THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DUE TO THE VERY WARM
SST/OHC, A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR TAU
36 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
--------------------------
INVEST #93S
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 28, 2020:
Location: 10.4°S 90.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
 Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 91.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 555
KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281350Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A 281459Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH MOSTLY 10 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15-20 KNOT
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME PATCHES OF 25KTS. INVEST
93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

DUE TO THE VERY WARM  SST/OHC, A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 36H JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.
DUE TO THE VERY WARM SST/OHC, A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 36H JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.



96S NEAR THE CHAGOS IS NOT ON THIS MAP YET.
96S NEAR THE CHAGOS IS NOT ON THIS MAP YET.

MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE INTENSITY-WISE. HWRF PEAKS OVER 65KNOTS ONCE AGAIN.
MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE INTENSITY-WISE. HWRF PEAKS OVER 65KNOTS ONCE AGAIN.

28/2230UTC. TC 07S OVER THE CHANNEL AND INVEST 96S NEAR THE CHAGOS. ENHANCED BY PH.
28/2230UTC. TC 07S OVER THE CHANNEL AND INVEST 96S NEAR THE CHAGOS. ENHANCED BY PH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 29 Décembre 2020 à 03:34