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TC 07S(ANA) intensifying and bearing down on MOZ// Invest 96W now MEDIUM and Invest 91W on the map, 24/03utc




WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 91W. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 24/01UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N  129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 455KM NORTHEAST OF THE DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232146Z SSMIS  91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A  PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS  INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY MODERATE (15-20  KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW  AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN  GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE  THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE  MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO  REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 455KM NORTHEAST OF THE DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232146Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.


TC 07S(ANA) intensifying and bearing down on MOZ// Invest 96W now MEDIUM and Invest 91W on the map, 24/03utc


ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: TC 07S(ANA). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC.

FORECAST REASONING.  SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.  FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST SOUTH OF NACALA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE WARM SSTS, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW VWS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK NEAR 50-55 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH CANNOT BE CAPTURED IN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INCREMENTS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 24 HOURS OF LANDFALL.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST SOUTH OF NACALA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE WARM SSTS, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW VWS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK NEAR 50-55 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH CANNOT BE CAPTURED IN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INCREMENTS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 24 HOURS OF LANDFALL.
0722011900 118S 572E  15
0722011906 119S 579E  15
0722011912 123S 586E  15
0722011918 128S 590E  20
0722012000 135S 591E  20
0722012006 141S 587E  25
0722012012 146S 588E  25
0722012018 149S 587E  30
0722012100 154S 580E  30
0722012106 158S 575E  30
0722012112 164S 566E  30
0722012118 170S 546E  30
0722012200 175S 525E  30
0722012206 178S 504E  30
0722012212 175S 484E  30
0722012218 172S 469E  25
0722012300 164S 459E  25
0722012306 158S 452E  30
0722012312 157S 444E  35
0722012318 157S 433E  35
0722012400 158S 421E  45

TC 07S(ANA) intensifying and bearing down on MOZ// Invest 96W now MEDIUM and Invest 91W on the map, 24/03utc

CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC ANA HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WHILE MOVING OVER OPEN WATER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT -85C AT THE 0000Z HOUR, BUT HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WARMED BUT THE SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. A 232250Z GPM COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH SIDE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE, BUT IN LINE WITH THE FMEE AND THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (47 KNOTS). SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C), VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND EQUATORWARD.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC ANA HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WHILE MOVING OVER OPEN WATER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT -85C AT THE 0000Z HOUR, BUT HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WARMED BUT THE SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. A 232250Z GPM COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH SIDE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE, BUT IN LINE WITH THE FMEE AND THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (47 KNOTS). SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C), VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND EQUATORWARD.


MODEL DISCUSSION: ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM 00H. THE JTWC FORECAST DEPARTS FROM THE GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY THE SAME, WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY TREND MATCHES THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND BY 36H.
MODEL DISCUSSION: ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM 00H. THE JTWC FORECAST DEPARTS FROM THE GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY THE SAME, WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY TREND MATCHES THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND BY 36H.




SOUTHERN HEMIPSHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 96S. UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 24/0030UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 850KM  WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION  WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL  ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO  THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW,  DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD  TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT  36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 850KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


TC 07S(ANA) intensifying and bearing down on MOZ// Invest 96W now MEDIUM and Invest 91W on the map, 24/03utc


GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS.

23/18UTC. ECMWF AT +240H.


23/18UTC. ECMWF AT +240H.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, January 24th 2022 à 07:35