TC 05S(BELAL) is tracking over REUNION island where top gusts should locally exceed 200km/h// 1503utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 05S(BELAL) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 98S.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHT INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, WRAPPING A SMALL INJECTION OF DRY AIR AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY WITH NO OBSERVABLE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASED INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES AND MID-LATITUDE TROF AS 05S HAS MADE ITS SOUTHEASTERLY TURN TOWARD LA REUNION, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AN EASTWARD COMPONENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED PINHOLE EYE BY THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AROUND THE MAXIMUM TURNING. BELOW THE CONTINUING AND OBSCURING CYCLONICALLY WRAPPED UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES, A PARTIAL 142328Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL AND DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CYCLONE INDICATED ON THE 141837Z ASCAT IMAGERY, A PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED PINHOLE EYE ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 142328Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS, AS WELL AS AN OBSERVED SLIGHT DECREASE IN WRAPPED CONVECTIVE FEATURES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LA REUNION AND FORECAST TO TURN GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL CONTINUE TO STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM UNTIL TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 90 KTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 36, DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND TC 05S FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, A SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STR TO THE WEST AND EAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 45 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. FOLLOWING TAU 48, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DIVERGES MODERATELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY OF UP TO 100 NM AS COMPETING STEERING FLOWS ENHANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 72, DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AN ACCURATE CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AS WELL, WITH A SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF 85-90 KTS THROUGH TAU 24, AND STEADILY DECREASING AS TC 05S TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.