TC 01B(MOCHA) is rapidly intensifying with forecast landfall SE of CHITTAGONG shortly before 72hours//1115utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 01B(MOCHA).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL AND CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER AND INTERLOCKING TOWARD THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH INCREASED OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 111133Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES REFLECTS THE 6-HR STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MOCHA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER AROUND TAU 66. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS AT TAU 48 AND TO A PEAK OF 100KTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 122 BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST UP TO THAT POINT. AFTERWARD, THE MODEL ENVELOPE SPREADS OUT MORE UNEVENLY; THIS PLUS THE UNCERTAINTIES OF A LAND PASSAGE LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.