TC 01A(TAUKTAE). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT. ALSO, FEEDER BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE DENSE AND CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AN EVOLVING, PINHOLE EYE. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 MAY 16 0305UTC
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 8
As of 00:00 UTC May 16, 2021:
Location: 15.0°N 72.9°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 440 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 8
As of 00:00 UTC May 16, 2021:
Location: 15.0°N 72.9°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 440 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC 01A. WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT; AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH 36H ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VANAKBARA, INDIA SHORTLY AROUND 48H. THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FUELED BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS/ US CAT 3 BY 24H. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 96H, POSSIBLY SOONER.
TC 01A.NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 260KM AT 48H AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM OF 470KM THROUGH 96H. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO 48H, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER LAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 36H IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT CONW SUGGESTS.
TC 01A. 15/2355UTC.
16/00UTC.
16/0147UTC. DMSP VISIBLE/ENHANCED.EVOLVING, PINHOLE EYE FEATURE.
TC 01A IS TRACKING OVER GOOD OCEAN HEAT SUPPORT.
TC 01A.24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.8 m/s (9.3 kts)Direction : 137.7deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: VERY FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 01A(TAUKTAE).
16/00UTC.
