TC 01A(TAUKTAE). IMPROVING SATELLITE SIGNATURE. Eumetsat/PH.
2021 MAY 15 0945UTC
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 5
As of 06:00 UTC May 15, 2021:
Location: 13.5°N 73.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #NORTHINDIAN #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 5
As of 06:00 UTC May 15, 2021:
Location: 13.5°N 73.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 15/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 15/09UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72H BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 72H. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER 24H WITH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS/ CAT 3 BY 72H JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORBANDAR, INDIA. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.
TC 01A. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 48H, WITH INCREASING SPREAD FROM 315KM AT 48H, INCREASING TO WELL OVER 1110KM BY 96H. AFTER 96H, THE MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AROUND THE STR. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE.
TC 01A. 15/0419UTC.
TC 01A. 15/06UTC.
