Southern Hemisphere: 3 tropical systems being monitored, 10S(JOSHUA), 11P(KIMI) and recently numbered 12S(ELOISE)


THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.


THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 10S(JOSHUA) AND 12S(ELOISE) AND 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 11P(KIMI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
2021 JAN 17 0730UTC
TC #10S #JOSHUA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 17, 2021:
WARNING 4
Location: 18.4°S 89.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 17, 2021:
WARNING 1
Location: 12.6°S 62.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #11P #KIM #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 17, 2021:
WARNING 2
Location: 15.4°S 146.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 

10S(JOSHUA). WARNING 4. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 36HOURS BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING.
10S(JOSHUA). WARNING 4. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 36HOURS BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING.

11P(KIMI). WARNING 2. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12H WITHIN A  COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN  SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS  TO THE SOUTH.TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK  INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY  24H WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND  DISSIPATION BY 48H. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK  INTENSITY AS MIDGET CYCLONES CAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNEXPECTEDLY.
11P(KIMI). WARNING 2. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12H WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY 24H WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND DISSIPATION BY 48H. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY AS MIDGET CYCLONES CAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNEXPECTEDLY.

12S(ELOISE). WARNING 1. 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE  FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH.12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF  55 KNOTS BY 48H AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF  MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY PEAK HIGHER AFTER 48H PRIOR  TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 72H SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. AFTER 72H, TC 12S WILL RAPIDLY  WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WITH DISSIPATION  ANTICIPATED BY 96H. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT  EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR 108H.
12S(ELOISE). WARNING 1. 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH.12S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY 48H AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY PEAK HIGHER AFTER 48H PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 72H SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. AFTER 72H, TC 12S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY 96H. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR 108H.

17/06UTC.
17/06UTC.

10P(JOSHUA). TRACK GUIDANCE. WITH THE  EXCEPTION OF NVGI AND EGRI, WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTER  72H, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 200/280KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AFTER 72H. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
10P(JOSHUA). TRACK GUIDANCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGI AND EGRI, WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTER 72H, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 200/280KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AFTER 72H. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

11P(KIMI) TRACK GUIDANCE.GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT  WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF  TRACKERS. UEMN, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD  TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AFUM  TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND, SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.  OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON  THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION OBSERVED SO FAR.
11P(KIMI) TRACK GUIDANCE.GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF TRACKERS. UEMN, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AFUM TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND, SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION OBSERVED SO FAR.


12S(ELOISE). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE  IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 185-260KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM 96H TO 120H. IF YOU EXCLUDE NVGM, THE SPREAD IS ONLY 55/95KM IN  THE EXTENDED TAUS. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK IS HIGH.
12S(ELOISE). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 185-260KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM 96H TO 120H. IF YOU EXCLUDE NVGM, THE SPREAD IS ONLY 55/95KM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 17 Janvier 2021 à 13:25