South Pacific: TC 15P(UESI) now a CAT 1 US, update at 10/15UTC



TC 15P(UESI) INTENSIFYING TO THE NORTH NORTH-WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.

CIRA/US
CIRA/US
TC 15P(UESI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 10, 2020:

Location: 17.6°S 162.5°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
 
TPPS10 PGTW 101509
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI)
B. 10/1430Z
C. 17.81S
D. 162.70E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   10/1029Z  17.43S  162.58E  MMHS
RHOADES
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332
NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
101029Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 101030Z
ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THIS
ASCAT IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED
ON PGTW/KNES/NFFN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY,
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 100736Z SMAP IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM
1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 62.4 KNOTS. TC UESI WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 72, TC UESI WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW (15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SST VALUES (28C). THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 15P TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM
25 TO 40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C).
THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS FAIR WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING TO 277NM AT TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z,
110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 7. FORECAST TO REACH 75KNOTS IN 24H


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


02/10 12UTC


02/10 06UTC


02/10 1030UTC


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 10 Février 2020 à 19:56