South Pacific: Invest 97P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. 96P: update at 20/06UTC



INVEST 97P: TCFA

INVEST 97P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 20, 2020:

Location: 13.5°S 173.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
TPPS11 PGTW 200916
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97P (NE OF SAMOA)
B. 20/0850Z
C. 13.57S
D. 172.87W
E. FIVE/GOES17
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   20/0510Z  13.30S  173.52W  MMHS
   20/0548Z  13.37S  173.37W  SSMS
RICHARDSON
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 174.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 174.4W, APPROXIMATELY
230 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 200351Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EASTWARD
DIFFLUENCE, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INVEST 97P
IS EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT BAND OF TROUGHING WITH STRONGER (25-30
KNOTS) WINDS DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 97P WILL MARGINALLY STRENGTHEN AND
CONSOLIDATE AS IT CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS
PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 200400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 20, 2020:

Location: 17.1°S 168.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 175.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 168.3W, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 200350Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOW A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A DE-
COUPLING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. 96P IS CURRENTLY
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96P
WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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INVEST 97P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 96P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 

02/20 0330UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 20 Février 2020 à 14:01