South Pacific: Invest 96P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



INVEST 96P: TCFA

INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 24, 2020:

Location: 15.8°S 168.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 169.0W TO 21.1S 166.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 168.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 169.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 168.9W, APPROXIMATELY
138 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 241756Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252200Z.//
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01/24 12UTC. GSF ENSEMBLE


 

01/24 21UTC


 

01/24 2145UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 25 Janvier 2020 à 03:10