South Pacific: 11P(KIMI) has developed rapidly into a midget cyclone apprx 200km to Cairns/Australia

2021 JAN 17 0330UTC
TC #11P #KIMI #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 17, 2021:
WARNING 1
Location: 15.1°S 146.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 146.4E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A MIDGET
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS, WITH A VERY SMALL CORE
OF DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION, HOT TOWERS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND
CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING OUTSIDE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THE OUTER EDGES OF A CIRCULATION SEEN IN ANIMATED RADAR
DATA AND ANALYSIS OF A VERY FORTUITOUS 170004Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER
BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS
WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN A TIGHT CORE OF HIGH WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30 DEG C)
SSTS AND DUE TO ITS POSITION UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, DUAL
CHANNEL MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
IS VERY COMPLEX, WITH TWO LOBES OF A DEEP-LAYER STR, ONE TO THE NORTH
AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST COMBINING TO CREATE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, RESULTING IN A
SLOW TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
THE STEERING PATTERN WILL CHANGE SUBTLY WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDING AND PUSHING WEST WITH A COL REGION DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA. IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE STEERING
PATTERN, TC 11P SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS, AND AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING IT FURTHER
INLAND TO THE WEST OF CAIRNS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NORTH OF
CAIRNS JUST AFTER TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION COUPLED WITH
INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNSURPRISINGLY IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT DUE TO VERY SMALL NATURE OF THE STORM STRUCTURE. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE PRESENTS A RANGE OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FROM A TRACK DUE
SOUTH THEN CURVING NORTHWARD, TO A DUE WEST TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC TREND AND
DOES NOT FAVOR ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKER, THUS LENDING VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBSEQUENTLY
VERY LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau