South Indian: cyclonic duo: TC 10S(DIANE) and TC 11S(97s), 10S tracking very close to Mauritius



TC 10S(DIANE) TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS( CAP MALHEUREUX). CLICK TO ANIMATE.

WEATHER US
WEATHER US


TC 10S(DIANE): WARNING 1. PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 45KT FORECAST IN 24H.

TC 10S(DIANE) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 24, 2020:
Location: 19.6°S 56.9°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 57.7E.
24JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DIANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 241805Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A
DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 241652Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS GOOD BASED ON THE TIMELY ASCAT DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF
28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 10S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS VWS DECREASES
WITH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TC 11S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TC 10S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AS THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE UNDER COOLER SST AND STRONG VWS (30-40 KNOTS).
TC 10S IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WITHIN 320NM OF TC 11S AT TAU 96 AND
WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE ITS TRACK. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232100).//
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TC 11S(97s)
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 24, 2020:
Location: 23.2°S 70.6°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 71.2E.
24JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
764 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCLUATION
CETNER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIMELY 1648Z ASCAT-A DATA THAT REVEALS 35
KTS WINDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. TC 11S IS TRANSITING A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUES AND ESTABLISHED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUITORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS
AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
EXPERIENCES HIGHER VWS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 72, VWS
WILL INCREASE TO > 40KTS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASING VWS
ALONG WITH COOLER (<25 C) SST BY TAU 72 WILL CAUSE TC 11S TO BEGIN
DISSPIATING OVER WATER. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE PERIPERY OF TC 10S TO THE WEST. THIS INTERACTION,
ALONG WITH FORCING BY RIDGING TO THE SOUTH, WILL CAUSE A SHARP
RECURVE TO THE WEST. INCREASED VWS, LOWER SST AND CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH AND INTERACTION WITH 10S WILL
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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TC 11S: WARNING 1.PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 45KT FORECAST IN 24H.


01/24 1652UTC TC 10S(DIANE)


 

01/24 1650UTC TC 11S

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 25 Janvier 2020 à 01:59