South Indian: INVEST 94S now rated as LOW for the next 24h, might develop quickly once over the MOZ Channel


The european model is aggressive.


2019 Feb 17 1830UTC

1:  Invest 94S is now rated as LOW by the Navy. The system is still over-land but based on guidance(Ecmwf, Gfs and UkMet) development coud take place early next week once the disturbance is over the Mozambique Channel.

I will be keeping tabs on the situation as usual.

2: here is the ABIO bulletin from the JTWC issued at 18UTC: ABIO10 PGTW 171800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8S
34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, BROAD LOW LEVEL
TURNING OVERLAND IN EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE. A 171443Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE
INDICATES THERE IS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY. 94S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KTS) AND WEAK DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKER TOWARDS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, 94S WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BUT VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ITS EMERGENCE OVER WATER AND
THE STRENGTH OF ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE SPECTRUM OF INTENSITY VARIES FROM
GFS HAVING BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT TO ECMWF INDICATING 94S WILL REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

2019 FEB 17 18UTC
2019 FEB 17 18UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 17 Février 2019 à 22:27