South Indian: 95S east of Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, update at 00UTC



01/24 01UTC. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY

CIRA/US
CIRA/US
INVEST 95S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 24, 2020:
Location: 18.3°S 51.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
Moving EAST AT 22KM/H
INTENSIFYING

WTXS21 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2S 50.0E TO 20.2S 58.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231800Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 50.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 48.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231527Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 231713Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT LLC
WITH 30 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
INVEST 95S INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242100Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AT 01/23 20UTC


 


GFS ENSEMBLE AT 01/23 18UTC.


MICROWAVE AT 01/23 2140UTC


HWRF AT 01/23 18UTC


01/23 2015UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 24 Janvier 2020 à 06:40