SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) has intensified to US/Category 3 with near 230km/h top gusts, 28/15utc update


22S(MARIAN). 28/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S(MARIAN) HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND ENLARGING TO 55 KM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING ONCE MORE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT.


22S(MARIAN). 28/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S(MARIAN) HAS UNDERGONE RAPID  INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT  AND ENLARGING TO 55 KM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING ONCE MORE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT.
22S(MARIAN). 28/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S(MARIAN) HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND ENLARGING TO 55 KM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF COOLING ONCE MORE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE IT.
2021 FEB 28 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 6
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 28, 2021:
Location: 17.4°S 91.3°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt (185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY US : 3
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 28/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 830 KM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

22S(MARIAN). WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 28/15UTC.THE SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL  RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE  SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION  ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER  THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER  SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN 24H AND 48H, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO  SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS  EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME  THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE  SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE  NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE  WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED  TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12H. AFTER THIS POINT  THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS  COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY  DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 28/15UTC.THE SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN 24H AND 48H, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12H. AFTER THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS.

22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD  AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 72H, RESULTING IN A 500KM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS  AT 120H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL  CONSENSUS THROUGH 48H, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION  WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH 120H. IN LIGHT OF THE  UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING  ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE  JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 72H, RESULTING IN A 500KM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 120H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48H, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH 120H. IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.


22S(MARIAN). 28/0957UTC. WELL DEPICTED MICROWAVE EYE. DATA ALSO ALSO SHOWED  THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE  AND THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT  BUT PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
22S(MARIAN). 28/0957UTC. WELL DEPICTED MICROWAVE EYE. DATA ALSO ALSO SHOWED THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.


22S(MARIAN). 28/1042UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.
22S(MARIAN). 28/1042UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.

22S(MARIAN). 28/0720UTC. H8/500M.
22S(MARIAN). 28/0720UTC. H8/500M.

22S(MARIAN). 28/12UTC. GOES-IO(61.5°Est).
22S(MARIAN). 28/12UTC. GOES-IO(61.5°Est).

22S(MARIAN).  CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude :    5.9 m/s (11.4 kts) Direction :   71.8 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24HOURS.
22S(MARIAN). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.9 m/s (11.4 kts) Direction : 71.8 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24HOURS.

22S(MARIAN). STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
22S(MARIAN). STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

28/15UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). INVEST 99P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.
28/15UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). INVEST 99P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 28 Février 2021 à 19:25