SIndian: 27S(ODETTE) rotates around 26S(SEROJA) which will absorb it by 48hours while intensifying. Invests 91S and 92P still monitored closely, 09/09utc update


09/09UTC. 9H LOOP. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: INVEST 91S. TC 27S(ODETTE) AND TC 26S(SEROJA). IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


09/09UTC. 9H LOOP. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: INVEST 91S. TC 27S(ODETTE) AND TC 26S(SEROJA). IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
09/09UTC. 9H LOOP. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: INVEST 91S. TC 27S(ODETTE) AND TC 26S(SEROJA). IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 APR 09 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #26S #SEROJA  #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 20
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 09, 2021:
Location: 19.7°S 109.4°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
INTENSIFYING
26S(SEROJA) LOCATED AT 09/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 565 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------
TC 27S #ODETTE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 18
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 09, 2021:
Location: 14.9°S 109.2°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
27S(ODETTE) LOCATED AT 09/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 970 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 09, 2021:
Location: 11.1°S 95.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 92P  #SOUTHPACIFIC #CORALSEA
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 09, 2021:
Location: 15.3°S 157.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

26S(SEROJA). WARNING 20 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND  DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT SOURCE ALOFT. TC26S (SEROJA) AND  TC 27S (ODETTE) ARE NOW INTERACTING AS THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED BY AN  ESTIMATED 540KM. ODETTE REMAINS THE SMALLER CYCLONE OF THE TWO AND  IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT SEROJA FROM INTENSIFYING AS ODETTE IS NOW  DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE PRESENCE OF TC 27S HAS  CAUSED SOME SLIGHT DISRUPTION AND PULLED SEROJA SLIGHTLY TO THE  NORTH OF ITS ORIGINAL TRACK. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF SWIFT  INTENSIFICATION REMAINS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND 36 HOURS ONCE  SEROJA COMPLETES FORMATION OF AN INNER CORE AND ROUNDS THE RIDGE  AXIS TO THE WEST. A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN  WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO 20- 25 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE JET STREAM, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE  ENTRAINMENT OF MID-LATITUDE DRY AIR. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE PEAK  INTENSITY BACKING OFF AND IS LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS/US CAT1 AT 48 HOURS, THOUGH  SINCE LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS,  THE PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL COULD BE HIGHER. THE TRACK  FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD  MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE,  BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYER  RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN  THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO SEROJA'S SHORT  TERM MOTION, AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS,  FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXACT TIMING OF  LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS HAS ABOVE- AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL SPREAD IN THE SLOW DOWN CAUSED BY  INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE PRIOR TO MAKING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE  TOWARD THE COAST.
26S(SEROJA). WARNING 20 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT SOURCE ALOFT. TC26S (SEROJA) AND TC 27S (ODETTE) ARE NOW INTERACTING AS THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED BY AN ESTIMATED 540KM. ODETTE REMAINS THE SMALLER CYCLONE OF THE TWO AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT SEROJA FROM INTENSIFYING AS ODETTE IS NOW DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE PRESENCE OF TC 27S HAS CAUSED SOME SLIGHT DISRUPTION AND PULLED SEROJA SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS ORIGINAL TRACK. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF SWIFT INTENSIFICATION REMAINS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND 36 HOURS ONCE SEROJA COMPLETES FORMATION OF AN INNER CORE AND ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST. A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO 20- 25 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE JET STREAM, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF MID-LATITUDE DRY AIR. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE PEAK INTENSITY BACKING OFF AND IS LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS/US CAT1 AT 48 HOURS, THOUGH SINCE LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS, THE PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL COULD BE HIGHER. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE, BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO SEROJA'S SHORT TERM MOTION, AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS, FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXACT TIMING OF LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS HAS ABOVE- AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL SPREAD IN THE SLOW DOWN CAUSED BY INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE PRIOR TO MAKING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.

26S(SEROJA). THE EXACT TIMING OF  LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS HAS ABOVE- AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL SPREAD IN THE SLOW DOWN CAUSED BY  INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE PRIOR TO MAKING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE  TOWARD THE COAST.
26S(SEROJA). THE EXACT TIMING OF LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS HAS ABOVE- AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL SPREAD IN THE SLOW DOWN CAUSED BY INTERACTION WITH TC ODETTE PRIOR TO MAKING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.

26S(SEROJA). 09/06UTC.
26S(SEROJA). 09/06UTC.

27S(ODETTE). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH A SMALL  POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING ABOVE ODETTE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND  WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT THESE ARE OFFSET BY THE  INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW RANGING BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS AS THE  DISTANCE BETWEEN ODETTE AND TC 26S (SEROJA) CLOSES WITHIN 540KM.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS MAKING NO  PROGRESSED EASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE VORTEX HAS  DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC. THE WINDOW OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION  SHOULD BE CLOSING AND NO FURTHER INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS IS  FORECAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AS ODETTE ROTATES  AROUND THE NORTH AND THEN EAST SIDE OF SEROJA. BEING THE LARGER,  MORE DOMINANT CYCLONE, SEROJA WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE SMALLER  CIRCULATION OF ODETTE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF ODETTE BY 48 HOURS  AFTER THE PAIR OF CYCLONES CROSSES THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH,  AUSTRALIA.
27S(ODETTE). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH A SMALL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING ABOVE ODETTE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT THESE ARE OFFSET BY THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW RANGING BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS AS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ODETTE AND TC 26S (SEROJA) CLOSES WITHIN 540KM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS MAKING NO PROGRESSED EASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE VORTEX HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC. THE WINDOW OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE CLOSING AND NO FURTHER INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS IS FORECAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AS ODETTE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTH AND THEN EAST SIDE OF SEROJA. BEING THE LARGER, MORE DOMINANT CYCLONE, SEROJA WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF ODETTE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF ODETTE BY 48 HOURS AFTER THE PAIR OF CYCLONES CROSSES THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.


27S(ODETTE). THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS  WARNING; HOWEVER, THE TRACK FOR TC 27S SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 48H AS  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE  DISSIPATION OF ODETTE INTO SEROJA.
27S(ODETTE). THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING; HOWEVER, THE TRACK FOR TC 27S SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 48H AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE DISSIPATION OF ODETTE INTO SEROJA.


09/0830UTC. INSAT3D(82°EAST). IMD.
09/0830UTC. INSAT3D(82°EAST). IMD.


27S(ODETTE). 09/0243UTC.
27S(ODETTE). 09/0243UTC.

INVEST 91S. 09/0329UTC.
INVEST 91S. 09/0329UTC.

 


INVEST 92P. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE  ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10  TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK  GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD; HOWEVER, DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION RATE  WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING THAT 92P WILL INTENSIFY, BUT  REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. GFS IS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER,  INDICATING THAT 92P WILL REACH WARNING THRESHOLD(35KNOTS) IN THE NEXT COUPLE  DAYS.
INVEST 92P. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD; HOWEVER, DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION RATE WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING THAT 92P WILL INTENSIFY, BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. GFS IS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER, INDICATING THAT 92P WILL REACH WARNING THRESHOLD(35KNOTS) IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

09/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 26S(SEROJA) AND 27S( ODETTE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE FOUR SYSTEMS.
09/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 26S(SEROJA) AND 27S( ODETTE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE FOUR SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 9 Avril 2021 à 13:55