SHEM:busy time! 23P(NIRAN) set to reach US/Cat 4 by 24h/ 22S(MARIAN) still at 55knots/ Invest 90S up-graded to High, Invest 91S soon on the map, 04/03utc updates


04/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW LIKELY TO REACH35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEGUN ISSUING 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR 90S AT 04/06UTC.


04/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW LIKELY TO  REACH35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEGUN ISSUING 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR 90S AT 04/06UTC.
04/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW LIKELY TO REACH35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEGUN ISSUING 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR 90S AT 04/06UTC.
2021 MAR 04 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #23P #NIRAN  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA
WARNING 13
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 15.2°S 148.7°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962mb
INTENSIFYING
CATEGORY US: 2
LOCATED AT 04/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 360 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
 Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #22S #MARIAN  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 13
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 20.6°S 93.2°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 04/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1020 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 16.0°S 69.5°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
LOCATED AT 04/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 760KM NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 17.1°S 39.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
LOCATED AT 04/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 100KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANGOCHE/MOZAMBIQUE.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

23P(NIRAN). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD  OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C).  TC 23P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE  FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG MAJOR  TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH  AND NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID  INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AIDS, THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT CYAN RING  FEATURE IN THE 032031Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH IS  TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND THE  FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE IN EIR, TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY  INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 4 BY 24H BUT THIS COULD OCCUR  EARLIER AND PEAK AT A HIGHER INTENSITY. AFTER 36H, TC 23P WILL  ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES  AND WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NEAR  72H, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT  BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND INTERACTS  WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC  ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS A STORM- FORCE LOW BY 96H.
23P(NIRAN). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 23P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A STRONG MAJOR TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AIDS, THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT CYAN RING FEATURE IN THE 032031Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND THE FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE IN EIR, TC 23P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 4 BY 24H BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER AND PEAK AT A HIGHER INTENSITY. AFTER 36H, TC 23P WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NEAR 72H, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS A STORM- FORCE LOW BY 96H.

23P(NIRAN).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A  480KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 72H LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO  THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
23P(NIRAN).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 480KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 72H LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

23P(NIRAN). 04/0230UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE 40-KM EYE WITHIN A SYMMETRIC  CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN  SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE RECENT  EASTWARD TRACK MOTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY  FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A  WELL DEFINED EYEWALL WITH A SMALL BREAK IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.
23P(NIRAN). 04/0230UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMATIVE 40-KM EYE WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE RECENT EASTWARD TRACK MOTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL WITH A SMALL BREAK IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.

23P(NIRAN). 03/2312UTC. 60KNOT WINDS(UPPER LIMIT) DETECTED BY ASCAT-B.
23P(NIRAN). 03/2312UTC. 60KNOT WINDS(UPPER LIMIT) DETECTED BY ASCAT-B.


23P(NIRAN). 03/2238UTC.
23P(NIRAN). 03/2238UTC.

22S(MARIAN). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE  CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD  DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY COOLING (25-26C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TURNING TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL  RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE  TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD. AT 48H, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BRINGS  STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES  TO MOVE SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER (22-23C) SSTS AND INCREASING  WIND SHEAR (35-45 KNOTS), DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY 72H.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY COOLING (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TURNING TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD. AT 48H, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BRINGS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER (22-23C) SSTS AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR (35-45 KNOTS), DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BY 72H.

22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE  JTWC FORECAST.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.

22S(MARIAN). 03/2323UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL  DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION.MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS STILL  WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN  SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE  INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE..
22S(MARIAN). 03/2323UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION.MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE..

INVEST 90S. TCFA ISSUED AT 04/03UTC. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT  FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INVEST 90S. TCFA ISSUED AT 04/03UTC. INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INVEST 90S.GLOBAL  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES.
INVEST 90S.GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES.

INVEST 90S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032043Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT  FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES.
INVEST 90S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032043Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 4 Mars 2021 à 08:05