07/1050UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 02S(TERATAI). TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 06/2230UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 105.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70KM NORTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. AFTER BOOMERANGING AROUND THE INDIAN OCEAN, THE REMNANTS OF 02S (TERATAI) HAVE MADE A COMEBACK. AN AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A FLOURISHING CONVECTIVE CENTER OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS A SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BULK OF THE FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C) AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS, SPECIFICALLY NAVGEM AND GFS, CALL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO THE 35KT WARNING THRESHOLD, BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY IT MUCH FURTHER. OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND WARNING CRITERIA. METAPHORICALLY SPEAKING, IT'S A FLASH IN A PAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS, SPECIFICALLY NAVGEM AND GFS, CALL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO THE 35KT WARNING THRESHOLD, BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY IT MUCH FURTHER. OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND WARNING CRITERIA. METAPHORICALLY SPEAKING, IT'S A FLASH IN A PAN.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 95W. THIS AREA REMAINS VERY WEAK AT 15KNOTS AND DISORGANIZED. MODELS HINT AT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 5 DAYS.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S(TERATAI).
