Rain-bearing over-land remnants of 06S(ELLIE): up-graded// Invest92P// 0309utc

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 06S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 294 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE AT THE MOMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, GOOD UPPER- LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD AID IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE AND POSSIBLY OVER WATER. COASTAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS BROOME WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF OVER-WATER TRACK AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS BROOME WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF OVER-WATER TRACK AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.