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Powerful TC 08S(BATSIRAI) CAT 4 US: to make landfall over Madagascar shortly after 24h// Invest 90S is now TC 10S, 04/15utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AND TC 10S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AND TC 10S.
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

04/15UTC.
04/15UTC.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(BATSIRAI). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER 24H, CROSS THE ISLAND, AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SHORTLY AFTER 48H. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 120KTS/CAT 4 US BY 12H; AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL SLOWLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS PRIOR TO ITS EXIT INTO THE CHANNEL. THE WARM SST IN THE CHANNEL WILL RE-INTENSIFY TC 08S TO 50KTS BY 96H. AFTERWARD, REDUCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DECREASING SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IT, DOWN TO 45KTS BY 120H.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER 24H, CROSS THE ISLAND, AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SHORTLY AFTER 48H. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 120KTS/CAT 4 US BY 12H; AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL SLOWLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS PRIOR TO ITS EXIT INTO THE CHANNEL. THE WARM SST IN THE CHANNEL WILL RE-INTENSIFY TC 08S TO 50KTS BY 96H. AFTERWARD, REDUCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DECREASING SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IT, DOWN TO 45KTS BY 120H.
0822012318  83S 883E  20
0822012400  88S 890E  20
0822012406  93S 896E  20
0822012412  98S 898E  20
0822012418 103S 901E  25
0822012500 110S 904E  25
0822012506 115S 907E  20
0822012512 122S 909E  20
0822012518 132S 906E  20
0822012600 142S 896E  25
0822012606 144S 881E  30
0822012612 150S 866E  30
0822012618 157S 852E  30
0822012700 164S 837E  35
0822012706 169S 819E  45
0822012712 180S 796E  90
0822012718 185S 777E  65
0822012800 184S 761E  50
0822012806 183S 747E  45
0822012812 183S 734E  45
0822012818 183S 724E  50
0822012900 182S 716E  55
0822012906 181S 707E  65
0822012912 180S 699E  70
0822012918 178S 691E  80
0822013000 175S 681E  95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E  95
0822013106 159S 638E  85
0822013112 159S 632E  80
0822013118 160S 629E  75
0822020100 164S 623E  80
0822020106 168S 610E  85
0822020112 172S 601E  90
0822020118 175S 591E  95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115

CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ENLARGE IT.

Powerful TC 08S(BATSIRAI) CAT 4 US: to make landfall over Madagascar shortly after 24h// Invest 90S is now TC 10S, 04/15utc
latestsi_3.png latestSI.png  (169.12 KB)

Powerful TC 08S(BATSIRAI) CAT 4 US: to make landfall over Madagascar shortly after 24h// Invest 90S is now TC 10S, 04/15utc

CIMSS ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL OVER 24H.


CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE, HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 55-KM SHARPLY OUTLINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 041015Z ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS/CAT 4 US IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28- 29C) SST, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (10-15KT) VWS. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE, HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 55-KM SHARPLY OUTLINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 041015Z ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115KTS/CAT 4 US IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28- 29C) SST, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (10-15KT) VWS. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH.

WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

04/1431UTC. DMSP VIS/ENHANCED. LOW SUN AGLE DEPICTING THE EYE FEATURE.


04/1229UTC. DMSP VIS/ENHANCED DEPICTED THE WELL ORGANIZED CORE OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 630KM BY 120H WITH NVGM THE NOTABLE RIGHT OF TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) UP TO 72H THEN JUST LEFT OF CONW TO OFFSET NVGM. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 630KM BY 120H WITH NVGM THE NOTABLE RIGHT OF TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) UP TO 72H THEN JUST LEFT OF CONW TO OFFSET NVGM. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

HWRF AT 04/06UTC: 117KNOTS AT +0H.


04/06UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 10S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 04/09UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 45KTS AT 24/36H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL REDUCE IT TO 40KTS AND HINDER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO 96H. AFTER 96H, THE ADDITION OF COOLING SST (26C) WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND BY 120H, WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 45KTS AT 24/36H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL REDUCE IT TO 40KTS AND HINDER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO 96H. AFTER 96H, THE ADDITION OF COOLING SST (26C) WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND BY 120H, WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS.
1022020206 168S 806E  25
1022020212 161S 812E  25
1022020218 157S 819E  25
1022020300 156S 830E  25
1022020306 160S 833E  25
1022020312 162S 835E  25
1022020318 165S 836E  30
1022020400 172S 836E  30
1022020406 178S 838E  35
1022020412 182S 836E  35

Powerful TC 08S(BATSIRAI) CAT 4 US: to make landfall over Madagascar shortly after 24h// Invest 90S is now TC 10S, 04/15utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 040355Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON RECENT SMAP AND HSCAT DATA AND CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 040355Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON RECENT SMAP AND HSCAT DATA AND CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INITIAL FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INITIAL FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, February 4th 2022 à 21:25
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