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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90W AND INVEST 98S.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 90W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 07/06UTC.ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 07/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE STILL DISORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070040Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE REVEALED THE EASTERN SIDE OF 90W TO HAVE A CONSISTENT WIND FIELD OF 10- 15KTS FLOWING INTO THE LLC WITH LARGER SWATH OF 20 KNOTS AND SOME CONVECTION INDUCED 25 KNOT AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WEAK OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY FAVORABLE SSTS (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF 90W, AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH THIS AREA, WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD, WILL INFLUENCE THE CONSOLIDATION OF 90W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, A MODERATE COLD SURGE EVENT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE AND POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 36. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SLUGGISH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
ECMWF STORM TRACK ENSEMBLE AT 07/00UTC UP TO + 240H.
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SLUGGISH.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 98S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 07/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 06/2330UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 132.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062111Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PERSISTENT CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF 25-30KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS, OFFSET BY VERY WARM (30-31C) SST AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE INVEST IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION THAT HAS SUPPORT FROM A WEAK MJO SIGNAL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY OUTSIDE 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY OUTSIDE 96 HOURS.
HWRF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure AT 07/00UTC: 124KNOTS AT +114H.
AVNO 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure AT 07/00UTC: 103KNOTS AT +120H.
ECMWF STORM TRACK ENSEMBLE AT 07/00UTC UP TO + 240H.
