Invest 98W upgraded to Medium. Invest 97P & 96S: updates



INVEST 98W WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 21, 2019:

Location: 4.9°N 142.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 201400 COR
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 135.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 148.7E, APPROXIMATELY 245
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200316Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 98W IS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND THEN SLOWLY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

INVEST 97W WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 21, 2019:

Location: 4.2°N 132.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

INVEST 97P  SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 21, 2019:

Location: 20.0°S 159.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

INVEST 97P  SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 21, 2019:

Location: 15.6°S 168.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 201400 COR
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0S 170.5W, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 200349Z
91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 97P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
 
INVEST 96S  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 21, 2019:

Location: 13.5°S 67.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 772
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A 201436Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL SATELLITE PASS DEPICTS A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM, WHICH SHOWS 96S TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING
ALONG THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
 

INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 97P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 96S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 20 Décembre 2019 à 23:28