Invest 98W may intensify once over the South China Sea



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 98W
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 28, 2019:

Location: 8.7°N 117.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 117.7E, APPROXIMATELY 89
NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTA PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 280111Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS VERY LITTLE INDICATION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
AND MINIMAL OVERHEAD CONVECTION. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOT), AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 99B
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 28, 2019:

Location: 5.2°N 80.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
83.3E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271315Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME MIDLEVEL ROTATION
ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LLC. A 271533Z ASCAT PASS FURTHER SHOWS THE
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLC, WITH 15-20 KT WINDS BELOW THE
CONVECTION AND A WEAK BUT DEFINED RETURN FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS,
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD FLOW, AND WARM (29-31C) SSTS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT AGREE ON TRACK,
PREDICTING 99B WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER
ROUNDING THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. ECMWF AND UKMO CALL FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 84, WHILE GFS AND NAVGEM
MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

28/12UTC. CIRA
28/12UTC. CIRA


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 28 Octobre 2019 à 15:24