10/0730UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: INVEST 93P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 09/2130UTC. ADVISORY (BELOW) ISSUED AT 10/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 KM EAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 091729Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPS INTO THE CENTER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK (05-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT 93P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 96W. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 142.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 290 KM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK . ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WEAK BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 02S(TERATAI).
GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEPICT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/NORTHERN AUSTRALIA: INVEST 94S. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND IS NOT ON THE JTWC AT THE MOMENT. KEEPING TABS ON IT FOR ANY SIGN OF ORGANIZATION.
GFS AT +72H DEPICTING BOTH INVEST 93P AND INVEST 96W AS INTENSIFYING CYCLONES.
