Invest 96S and Invest 90S// Invest 91P// 10 day ECMWF Storm Tracks// 1603utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96S.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 79.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 77.8E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. A 151312Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY VWS, AND WARM (28- 29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE FORMATION OF INVEST 96S AS WELL AS 90S, HOWEVER THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96S WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE FORMATION OF INVEST 96S AS WELL AS 90S, HOWEVER THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96S WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 61.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 151454Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY AN UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND PERSISTENT BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SST VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THE FORMATION OF INVEST 90S AS WELL AS INVEST 96S, WHICH IS 1000NM TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, THE 15/1200Z GFS RUN INDICATES 90S WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ECMWF (15/0600Z RUN) FAVORS INVEST 96S BUT INDICATES A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THE FORMATION OF INVEST 90S AS WELL AS INVEST 96S, WHICH IS 1000NM TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, THE 15/1200Z GFS RUN INDICATES 90S WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ECMWF (15/0600Z RUN) FAVORS INVEST 96S BUT INDICATES A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD NORTHERN MADAGASCAR.