Invest 95W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 95W
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 18, 2019:
Location: 22.5°N 129.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.9N 129.0E TO 24.6N 126.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N
128.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 128.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, APPROXIMATELY 600-750 NM DIAMETER. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
180647Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A
DEFINED, BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL
180035Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CORE WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO STRONG (15-
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT (212 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48)
WITH THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190900Z.//
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INVEST 90W
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 18, 2019:
Location: 14.1°N 151.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb