Invest 95S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the JTWC, 650km NNE of Mauritius



2H ANIMATION. THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT ORGANISATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. CLICK IF NECESSARY TO ANIMATE.
2H ANIMATION. THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT ORGANISATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. CLICK IF NECESSARY TO ANIMATE.


HIGH CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 35KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS. US NAVY
HIGH CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 35KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS. US NAVY
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR INVEST 95S LOCATED AT 00UTC APPROXIMATELY 650 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TCFA=HIGH CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 35KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.

2H ANIMATION INDICATES  THAT THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT ORGANISATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. CLICK IF NECESSARY TO ANIMATE.
2020 DEC 24 0425UTC
TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 24, 2020:
Location: 14.6°S 60.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55 km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 60.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232119Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 231755Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 30-35 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. INVEST 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
Cheers,

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING MODERATELY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BEING TARGETED
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING MODERATELY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BEING TARGETED

THE EURO MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE SOUTHWARDS THAN GFS. THE RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE EURO DEPICTIONS.
THE EURO MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE SOUTHWARDS THAN GFS. THE RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE EURO DEPICTIONS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 24 Décembre 2020 à 09:11