NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/ARABIAN SEA. INVEST 93A
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 68.7E, APPROXIMATELY 560 KM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 181350Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28- 29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL SEE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
GFS MODEL AT +48H.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 92B
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 83.5E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
19/07UTC.
