Invest 92B now on the map and expected to develop next 3 days, 13/06utc update

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3N 97.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 130024Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LLCC DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS MALAY PENINSULA. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATED SHARP TROUGHING WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA AND 15-20 KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA, AWAY FROM LAND, AND TOWARD THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA, AWAY FROM LAND, AND TOWARD THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.