INVEST 90W to the northeast of Palau: no significant development expected next 48/72hours


LOW chances of development for the next 24hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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Previous publication: https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-90W-currently-close-to-Palau-chances-of-development-downgraded-for-the-next-24hours_a789.html
https://www.meteo974.re/INVEST-90W-460km-to-the-southeast-of-Yap-may-develop-next-few-days_a784.html

INVEST 90W
As of 00:00 UTC May 04, 2019:

Location: 8.4°N 138.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt( 30km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 248
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 040006Z MHS 89GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT A VERY WEAK, ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 10-15 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 90W BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
 

0550UTC
0550UTC

0008UTC
0008UTC

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 90W: NOT MUCH EXPECTED FROM IT NEXT 72H
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 90W: NOT MUCH EXPECTED FROM IT NEXT 72H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 4 Mai 2019 à 11:25