INVEST 90S & INVEST 91S updates// INVEST 92P Subtropical// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks// 1006utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90S AND ON INVEST 91S

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9S 40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 091538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLC, WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 1007 MB AND A 1 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION. AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION. AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S 95.3E, 90 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1527Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AREAS OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 091007Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17-22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP NEAR 1004 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH A BROAD OVERALL STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED AREAS OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH A BROAD OVERALL STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED AREAS OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.