INVEST 90S & INVEST 91S : Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued at 10/09UTC

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90S AND ON INVEST 91S

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E, 506 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100731Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BUILD NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BUILD MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-22 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP NEAR 1000 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION.