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Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 07A AND ON INVEST 98S.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 07A AND ON INVEST 98S.
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS
20221217_1030_abpwsair.jpg 20221217.1030.abpwsair.jpg  (649.49 KB)

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 07A. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 17/06UTC.

Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc
IO, 07, 2022121212,123N,  751E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 07, 2022121218,123N,  740E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 07, 2022121300,125N,  733E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 07, 2022121306,125N,  725E,  20, 1007, DB
IO, 07, 2022121312,126N,  718E,  20, 1007, DB
IO, 07, 2022121318,129N,  713E,  35, 1003, TS
IO, 07, 2022121400,132N,  705E,  50,  994, TS
IO, 07, 2022121406,134N,  699E,  50,  999, TS
IO, 07, 2022121412,135N,  692E,  45,  999, TS
IO, 07, 2022121418,135N,  685E,  45, 1001, TS
IO, 07, 2022121500,136N,  679E,  45, 1000, TS
IO, 07, 2022121506,138N,  672E,  45, 1001, TS
IO, 07, 2022121512,140N,  665E,  40,  999, TS
IO, 07, 2022121518,138N,  657E,  35, 1003, TS
IO, 07, 2022121600,137N,  651E,  35, 1003, TS
IO, 07, 2022121606,136N,  645E,  35, 1004, TS
IO, 07, 2022121612,142N,  637E,  30, 1002, TD
IO, 07, 2022121618,142N,  629E,  30, 1000, TD
IO, 07, 2022121700,140N,  622E,  30, 1004, TD
IO, 07, 2022121706,137N,  614E,  30, 1000, TD

WARNING 7/FINAL ISSUED AT 16/09UTC.



SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 98S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 17/06UTC.

Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc
SH, 98, 2022121106,96S,  959E,  15, 1008, DB
SH, 98, 2022121112,97S,  965E,  15, 1008, DB
SH, 98, 2022121118,99S,  971E,  15, 1007, DB
SH, 98, 2022121200,101S,  977E, 25, 1006, TD
SH, 98, 2022121206,106S,  977E, 25, 1005, TD
SH, 98, 2022121212,108S,  974E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121218,109S,  970E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121300,107S,  966E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121306,105S,  962E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121312,103S,  955E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121318,105S,  952E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121400,107S,  948E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121406,108S,  940E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121412,102S,  926E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121418,96S,   916E, 25, 1004, TD
SH, 98, 2022121500,88S,  918E,  30, 1003, TD
SH, 98, 2022121506,86S,  924E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 98, 2022121512,83S,  932E,  30, 1000, TD
SH, 98, 2022121518,84S,  939E,  25, 1003, TD
SH, 98, 2022121600,86S,  944E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 98, 2022121606,88S,  948E,  25, 1002, TD
SH, 98, 2022121612,92S,  950E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 98, 2022121618,97S,  945E,  25, 1001, TD
SH, 98, 2022121700,102S,  937E, 25, 1001, TD
SH, 98, 2022121706,107S,  934E, 25, 998, TD
SH, 98, 2022121712,113S,  932E, 25, 998, TD
SH, 98, 2022121718,119S,  931E, 25, 998, TD

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 17/18UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171549Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND MODERATE (28- 29C) SSTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171549Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS AND MODERATE (28- 29C) SSTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

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Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc
98s_171800sair.jpg 98S_171800sair.jpg  (467.39 KB)

Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
2023sh98_ctcxdiag_202212170000.png 2023sh98_ctcxdiag_202212170000.png  (173.24 KB)
2023sh98_ctcxdiag_202212171200.png 2023sh98_ctcxdiag_202212171200.png  (166.92 KB)


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BOB: INVEST 98B. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 17/06UTC.

Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc
IO, 98, 2022121506,25N,  939E,  15, 1007, DB
IO, 98, 2022121512,25N,  936E,  15, 1006, DB
IO, 98, 2022121518,27N,  934E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 98, 2022121600,29N,  931E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 98, 2022121606,33N,  924E,  15, 1006, DB
IO, 98, 2022121612,37N,  922E,  15, 1006, DB
IO, 98, 2022121618,42N,  918E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 98, 2022121700,44N,  913E,  15, 1010, DB
IO, 98, 2022121706,47N,  906E,  15, 1010, DB


SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 99P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 17/06UTC.

Final Warning for TC 07A//Invest 98S likely to intensify next 48H//Invest 98B//Invest 99P//Storm Tracks(Ecmwf) up to 10days//1718utc
SH, 99, 2022121512,113S, 1796E,  15, 1004, DB
SH, 99, 2022121518,114S, 1791W,  15, 1003, DB
SH, 99, 2022121600,115S, 1781W,  15, 1002, DB
SH, 99, 2022121606,116S, 1770W,  15, 1002, DB
SH, 99, 2022121612,117S, 1757W,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 99, 2022121618,118S, 1740W,  15, 1010, DB
SH, 99, 2022121700,128S, 1727W,  25, 1004, TD
SH, 99, 2022121706,135S, 1720W,  25, 1004, TD




ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 16/18UTC UP TO +240H.


ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 16/18UTC UP TO +240H.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, December 17th 2022 à 12:54
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