Fiji area: Invest 93P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



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INVEST 93P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2020:
Location: 11.5°S 172.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 172.1E TO 14.6S 178.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 152030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 170.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 151726Z 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151024Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
FAVORABLE SST, HOWEVER VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.//
NNNN

TCFA


 

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


 

01/15 2030UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 16 Janvier 2020 à 05:27