DANILO(08S) is forecast to approach the Mascarene islands as a minimal TC, update at 06/15UTC


TC 08S WILL MOVE WESTWARD UP TO 48H
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 40KNOTS BY 12H- SUSTAINED UP TO 48H.
AFTERWARD, COOLING SEAS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 120H AFTER IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS AND
LA REUNION.


TC 08S WILL MOVE WESTWARD UP TO 48H  THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT  INTENSIFICATION TO 40KNOTS BY 12H- SUSTAINED UP TO 48H.  AFTERWARD, COOLING SEAS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN  APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM  LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 120H AFTER IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS AND  LA REUNION.
TC 08S WILL MOVE WESTWARD UP TO 48H THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 40KNOTS BY 12H- SUSTAINED UP TO 48H. AFTERWARD, COOLING SEAS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 120H AFTER IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION.
TC 08S (DANILO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2021 JAN 06 1440UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 15
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 06, 2021:
Location: 16.5°S 74.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.0E.
06JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED AS RAIN
BANDS UNRAVELED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENED, DEFORMED AND
SHEARED WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS LINED UP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF A FAINT
BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 060900Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 060449Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING MAX 35-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY TREND OF T2.5/3.0
(35/45KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND ALONG-TRACK SST AT 28C. TC 08S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH AND WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD UP TO TAU 48
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS BY TAU 12 - SUSTAINED UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AFTER IT TRACKS OVER MAURITIUS AND
LA REUNION. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 290NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
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REMNANTS OF TC #09P #IMOGEN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 06, 2021:
Location: 18.6°S 146.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
LOW
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

06/1312UTC. DMSP. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IT HAS BEEN INCREASING RECENTLY.
06/1312UTC. DMSP. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IT HAS BEEN INCREASING RECENTLY.

06/1328UTC.MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE WELL DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
06/1328UTC.MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE WELL DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TRACK GUIDANCE. MINIMAL  AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 540KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN  THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
TRACK GUIDANCE. MINIMAL AND EQUAL SPREADING TO 540KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. KEEPING TABS ON IT.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE. KEEPING TABS ON IT.

REMNANTS OF TC 09P(IMOGEN) AT 06/12UTC. L MARKS ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
REMNANTS OF TC 09P(IMOGEN) AT 06/12UTC. L MARKS ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 6 Janvier 2021 à 19:06