DANILO(08S) : forecast to track very close or over Mauritius shortly after 72h with 40knots sustained winds


BY 48H, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING 08S(DANILO) TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS.


BY 48H, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN  AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING 08S(DANILO) TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE  SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW  ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH LOW SHEAR, SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT  INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 40 KNOTS. NEAR 36H,  OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE MORE, BRIEFLY TAPPING INTO A POLEWARD  CHANNEL, WHICH, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW SHEAR, WILL RESULT IN A  PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS THROUGH 48H.
BY 48H, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING 08S(DANILO) TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH LOW SHEAR, SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 40 KNOTS. NEAR 36H, OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE MORE, BRIEFLY TAPPING INTO A POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW SHEAR, WILL RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS THROUGH 48H.
08S(DANILO)LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1435KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 24 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2021 JAN 07 1430UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 17
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 07, 2021:
Location: 16.3°S 70.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071151Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTORS
OF THE LLCC. WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND IS HEDGED BELOW AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.8. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
(5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS BEING OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 08S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORHTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 08S TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH LOW VWS, SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO 40 KTS. NEAR TAU 36,
OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE MORE, BRIEFLY TAPPING INTO A POLEWARD
CHANNEL, WHICH, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW VWS, WILL RESULT IN A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48. INCREASING VWS,
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL COMBINE BY TAU
72 TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 96 THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
VERY LOW OHC WATERS AND CONVERGENT OUTFLOW FORMS ALOFT, BEGINNING A
RAPID WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH 85NM SPREAD AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 160NM AT TAU 120,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

07/11UTC. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE NOW NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. LOW LEVEL BANDS ARE CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND.
07/11UTC. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE STABLE NOW NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. LOW LEVEL BANDS ARE CLOSE TO RODRIGUES ISLAND.

07/1151UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE EXPOSED CENTER WITH STILL PATCHY BUT INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO TO THE SOUTHWEST.
07/1151UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE EXPOSED CENTER WITH STILL PATCHY BUT INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO TO THE SOUTHWEST.

07/1135UTC. DMSP.
07/1135UTC. DMSP.

07/06UTC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST  PERIOD, WITH 160KM SPREAD AT 72H, INCREASING TO 300KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
07/06UTC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 160KM SPREAD AT 72H, INCREASING TO 300KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.


INTENSITY GUIDANCE. STILL FLUCTUATIONS AMONG THE MEMBERS BUT THERE IS AN INTENSIFICATION TREND IDENTIFIED.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. STILL FLUCTUATIONS AMONG THE MEMBERS BUT THERE IS AN INTENSIFICATION TREND IDENTIFIED.


07/06UTC. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS ALSLO TARGETING THE MAURITIUS AREA.
07/06UTC. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS ALSLO TARGETING THE MAURITIUS AREA.

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GFS DEPICTS A TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GFS DEPICTS A TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 7 Janvier 2021 à 19:10