DANILO(08S) and Invest 93S getting closer whereas Invest 97P is up-graded to Medium in the Gulf of Carpentaria


TC 08S(DANILO). WARNING 3: DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.


TC 08S(DANILO). WARNING 3:  DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK  AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE  IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
TC 08S(DANILO). WARNING 3: DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
2021 JAN 02 0750UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 3
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 10.5°S 72.2°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 72.4E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UNFORTUNATELY, THERE HAS BEEN
NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE 020100Z TO ASSIST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
INITIAL POSITION, HOWEVER A TIMELY 020402Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A
SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE CIRCULATION TO
LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS)
FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (50 KTS), AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA, INDICATING 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALSYSIS SUPPORTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C)
SSTS. HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM INVEST 93S LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 430NM EAST-SOUTHEAST IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VWS OF TC 08S, SHEARING THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS STARTING TO SLOWLY
SHIFT TO A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS THE NER TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS.
AS THIS NER CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 08S WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHEAST,
THEN SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE FORECAST
BECOMES HIGHLY COMPLEX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION AND ULTIMATE MERGER WITH INVEST 93S APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST. THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT OF THIS INTERACTION ON THE TRACK IS
REFLECTED IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND
GALWEM SHOWING A SOUTHEAST OR EAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, WHILE THE
ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAVGEM, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND
COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) INDICATE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, THEN A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. THE LATTER GROUP OF
MODELS INDICATE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHEY OF THE STRONG NER THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
SLOWING AND TURNING SOUTH AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION WITH
INVEST 93S, ULTIMATELY ABSORBING IT BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AN STR
IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE
TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS A MELD OF BOTH
SCENARIOS, BUT FAVORS THE LATTER GROUPING OF MODELS AFTER TAU 36.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILARLY COMPLEX, PRIMARILY IN LIGHT OF
THE IMPACT OF THE INTERACTION AND ABSORBTION OF INVEST 93S. TC 08S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT
CONTINUES TO FIGHT OFF THE EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF INVEST
93S. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT
INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH 93S, THEN STEADY AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER
IMPROVED CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS. DUE TO THE VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN TRACK
AND INTENSITY SCENARIO AND GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z,
022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------
INVEST #93S
UPDATE:
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 14.6°S 78.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)  
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------
INVEST #97P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE:
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 15.2°S 137.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 020600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 137.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY
112 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 020430Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, DEPICTS A TIGHTENING, PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A FRAGMENTED, BUT ORGANIZING,
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 011151Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
OBLONG, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) SURROUNDED BY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OF WIND. 97P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
COASTLINE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

AT 02/06UTC THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO LOW LEVEL CENTERS IS ABOUT 800KM. 02/0845UTC. PH.
AT 02/06UTC THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO LOW LEVEL CENTERS IS ABOUT 800KM. 02/0845UTC. PH.

TC 08S: TRACK GUIDANCE
TC 08S: TRACK GUIDANCE

INVEST 93S: TRACK GUIDANCE
INVEST 93S: TRACK GUIDANCE

INVEST 97P: TRACK GUIDANCE
INVEST 97P: TRACK GUIDANCE

INVEST 97P IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IS NOW MEDIUM
INVEST 97P IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IS NOW MEDIUM
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 2 Janvier 2021 à 13:15