Cyclones: Pacific duo, TC 06P(TIFFANY) and TC 05P(CODY) updates 12/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 05P(CODY). WARNING 12/FINAL ON TC 06P(TIFFANY) IS ISSUED AT 12/03UTC.THE OVER-LAND SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS.

12/0220UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TIFFANY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM ABOM INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER ARNHEM LAND, NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TRIANGULATION FROM MULTIPLE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 112330Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND FROM THE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF BONAPARTE GULF AND BY 48H WILL BE NEXT TO WYNDHAM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NVGM AND ECMF ARE ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TRACKING THE VORTEX JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AROUND 30H BEFORE DRIVING IT BACK INLAND BY 48H. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION OR RETURN INTO WATER.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC CODY WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STR FOR THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES MORE POLEWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE, SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION UP TO 24H. BY 36H, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY 48H WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEGREE OF WRAP AND DEEP CONVECTION AND A LARGE, RAGGED 75-KM BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50KTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MEDIUM TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SSTS, LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST, AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT DRASTICALLY SHOOTS THE VORTEX WESTWARD AFTER 24H. REGARDLESS, THERE IS HIGH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 24H TO OFFSET NAVGEM.