Cyclone OMA(15P) expected to peak as a CAT2 US within the next 24hours

2019 FEB 19 09UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 75knots TC, CAT1 US.
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 190551Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER
NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN
26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
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