Cyclone OMA(15P), Category 1US, tracking 130km west of the Belep islands where 140km/h gusts are reported


Warning 29/JTWC


2019 FEB 19 02UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
My Remarks: as I anticipated(warning 27) the intensity is now above the previous forecast. Current forecast peak is 85knots(CAT2 US) in 24H. High confidence in the forecast track over 48H but low afterwards as models spread out significantly .

TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 75knots TC, CAT1 US.
WARNING 29/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 29 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 19, 2019:
Location: 19.7°S 162.3°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A
RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
182303Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.5
(77 KNOTS) AND KNES 5.0 (90 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 75 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE
PERSISTANTLY RAGGED STRUCTURE OF THE EYE AND CONVECTION WILL SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER
LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
FUEL AN INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT
SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION BEYOND TAU 72.
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE EAST.
THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau


2019 FEB 19 0110UTC
2019 FEB 19 0110UTC

2019 FEB 19 01UTC
2019 FEB 19 01UTC

2019 FEB 19 0030UTC
2019 FEB 19 0030UTC







Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 19 Février 2019 à 05:52