TC 02B. 24/0230UTC. 2H30 LOOP.PREVIOUSLY TC 02B CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE SYSTEM.
2021 MAY 24 0230UTC #NORTHINDIAN #GULFOFBENGAL
TC #02B #YAAS
WARNING 1
As of 00:00 UTC May 24, 2021:
Location: 16.0°N 89.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 24/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 590 KM SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #02B #YAAS
WARNING 1
As of 00:00 UTC May 24, 2021:
Location: 16.0°N 89.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 24/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 590 KM SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC 02B. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) IS SHOWING PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PREVIOUSLY, IT CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN EXPOSED LLCC AND TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES (A 232223Z SSMI AND 232245Z SSMIS). A 231149Z SMAP PASS SHOWED THE HEAVY ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT MUCH LIGHTER EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS VERIFY INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE EASTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUSLY, THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FORCED BY A WESTERLY WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND THE INDIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION, BUT NOW THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE INDEPENDENTLY AS IT BEGINS A POLEWARD DRIFT. THE INITIAL TRACK IS FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE NEWLY FORMING LLCC ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTROID, BUT BY 12H THE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. 31 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KT) FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS ON INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING 20-30KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH 36H. AFTER 36H, THE SHEAR WILL EASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TC 02B WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE VIGOROUS MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, TC 02B WILL CARRY EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE SPAN.
TC 02B. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE AREA OF PARADIP, INDIA.
TC 02B. CURRENT FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR BALASORE SHORTLY AFTER 48H.
TC 02B. 24/00UTC.
TC 02B. 23/2223UTC. THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 02B.
