2021 JULY 14 0655UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
INVEST #98W
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC July 14, 2021:
Location: 17.0°N 137.5°E
Maximum Winds: 13/18 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 895 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
INVEST #98W
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC July 14, 2021:
Location: 17.0°N 137.5°E
Maximum Winds: 13/18 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 895 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
INVEST 98W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140343Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
INVEST 98W. GFS AND NAVGEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THIS LOCATION FOR THE PAST FOUR MODEL RUNS.NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL TRACK POLEWARD AS IT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS DUE TO A FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN JAPAN AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST.
14/00UTC.
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.TD 06E. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 14/10UTC. FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE CATEGORY 1(65KNOTS) BY 72H.
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. INVEST 96E IS NOW TD 06E. GUIDANCE.
14/00UTC.
