Active Pacific: 99P: Medium// 95W: development likely next several days//Remnants of TC 22S(HALIMA)//Invests 94W & 98P,03/00utc, 06utc update

JTWC IS ISSUING 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 99P.

03/0615UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 164.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 164.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 KM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ALTHOUGH A PARTIAL 030202Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE MISSED MOST OF THE BROAD SYSTEM, IT DOES SHOW FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE VANUATU ISLANDS. A 022252Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20- 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM VANUATU GENERALLY INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OVER THE CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD AND JUST NORTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. NAVGEM HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. BASED ON THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT, GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FAVORED MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022159Z ASCAT PASS SHOW 99P HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING GRADUALLY BURROWING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD AND JUST NORTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. NAVGEM HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. BASED ON THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT, GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FAVORED MODELS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 158.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO FUEL LOOSELY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD, THE LLC IS LOCATED NORTH OF A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST WITH EXTENSIVE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITH A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM FORM A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF SHOWS SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

A 022334Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS AN BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WHILE THE SCATTEROMETER PASS DOES NOT DEFINE THE ACTUAL LLCC, IT PROVIDED ADDITIONAL CLARIFICATION TO THE INITIAL POSITION.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WITH A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM FORM A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF SHOWS SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.