92W: development still likely next several days

TCFA/JTWC
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 19, 2019:
Location: 4.8°N 159.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
WTPN21 PGTW 190300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) REISSUED
CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251Z FEB 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N 160.7E TO 5.8N 151.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 154
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER
(LLC). A 182257Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER.
INVEST 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WHEREAS ECMWF
SHOWS MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN 18-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 180300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION AND
REMARKS.//
NNNN

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau