2PM(PH), 06UTC: 90W near Palau: no longer suspect . 92W: models less aggressive but area still under close watch


90W is no longer on the map whereas 92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours


90W is no longer on the Chart whereas 92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours
90W is no longer on the Chart whereas 92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Related publications: https://www.meteo974.re/2-weeks-outlook-MJO-over-the-West-Pacific-and-moving-eastward-92W-likely-to-develop-and-approach-the-Guam-area_a802.html


INVEST 90W

As of 00:00 UTC May 08, 2019:
Location: 9.2°N 136.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED NEXT 48H

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 136.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
------------------------------------------------------------

INVEST 92W

As of 00:00 UTC May 08, 2019:
Location: 3.0°N 162.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MARIANAS BUT MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE ABOUT DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
BPW10 PGTW 080600

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.5N 161.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 340
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 080426Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRIONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE,
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DIFFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-
31C) IN THIS REGIONS OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
STRONGLY ON TRACK, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS ISLANDS. FOR INTENSITY, MOST MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS
A BROAD LLC WITHOUT FORMING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 90W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 90W

00UTC
00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 8 Mai 2019 à 11:34