25W(MALOU) intensifying next 3 days/Tropical cyclone Formation alert for Invest 99W//17E(RICK) reaching CAT 2 and making landfall,25/06utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH LARGE AREAS OF DEEP SUSTAINED CONVECTION REMAINING WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A BULLSEYE 242226Z ASCAT-A PASS INDICATING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TS 25W, WITH ALMOST ALL MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING AT 48H. NVGM IS STILL THE MAJOR OUTLIER OF THE MULTIPLE MODEL CONSENSUS. EXCLUDING NVGM, CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS LESS THAN 220 KM ALL THE WAY UP TO 72H. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 72H AND 96H. THEREAFTER, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT AGREE ON THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH HWRF PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS AND GFS PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS, WITH MOST OTHERS AROUND 70-90 KNOTS. TO OFFSET HWRF, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONSENSUS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 575 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC. THIS BANDING CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN A 242334Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, BUT A 250008Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS UNDER THE BANDING IS PART OF THE COLD SURGE EVENT TO THE NORTH AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL, BUT THE CURRENT TRACK SPEED OF INVEST 99W, WHICH IS FASTER THAN IN MODEL GUIDANCE, INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOONER WITH LESS TIME OVER WATER TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

HU 17E(RICK). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.