21UTC: TC KENNETH(24S) now category 3 US, tracking 15/20km north of Grande Comore, still intensifying, approaching Mozambique


Warning 8/JTWC


WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC KENNETH(24S)
As of 18:00 UTC Apr 24, 2019:

Location: 11.2°S 43.3°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
CATEGORY 3 US

REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 42.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
NORTH OF COMOROS ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A NEW EYE AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
FIXES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES DUE TO THE EMERGENT EYE.
HOWEVER, IT IS A COMPACT SYSTEM. THE 241800Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH,
REPORTED WINDS RISING, CURRENTLY AT 36 KTS, AND PRESSURE FALLING,
CURRENTLY AT 1000MB. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO 110 KTS IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18. TC 24S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE COAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE
FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW VWS MAY ALLOW
THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT DOMINANT STEERING
STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU 96-120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. GUIDANCE AFTER
THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME MODELS LOOPING
THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-EMERGING OVER WATER,
SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT REMAINING OVER LAND, AND
UKMET TURNING TC 24S TO THE SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

TRACKING 15/20KM NORTH OF GRANDE COMORE AND APPROACHING MOZAMBIQUE
TRACKING 15/20KM NORTH OF GRANDE COMORE AND APPROACHING MOZAMBIQUE

20UTC
20UTC


1551UTC
1551UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 25 Avril 2019 à 01:58