21UTC: JOANINHA(22S) intensifying to category 3 US within 12hours, tracking very close to the east of Rodrigues shortly after 36h


Warning 12/JTWC


WARNING 12/JTWC
WARNING 12/JTWC
Cyclone may begin to suffer from up-welling should the track remain so slow.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 24, 2019:

Location: 17.3°S 61.9°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
CATEGORY 2 US  INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 241724Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A RAGGED CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER SMAP IMAGE (24/0152Z) FROM REMSS INDICATED 85-
90 KNOT WINDS AND, DESPITE THE WEAK EYE FEATURE, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS),
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS. ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES OF 5.3 (ABOUT 95 KNOTS) AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 81-93 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
WITHIN THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE
TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM INDICATING FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. ECMWF AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SUPPORT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WIDE SPREAD
OF SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH FAVORS SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND IS POSITIONED SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO
A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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2032UTC
2032UTC

20UTC
20UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 25 Mars 2019 à 01:10